Gold Price Forecast, Weekly Analysis – 15 to 19 September 2025

Gold has always been more than just a shiny metal in Saudi Arabia. It carries deep cultural value, acts as a hedge against inflation, and remains a strong choice for long-term investors. In the past week, the Gold (XAU) price showed intense movement, bouncing back after a quick fall from all-time highs near $3,700. Traders in the Kingdom kept a close eye on global events because local prices in SAR are directly linked to the US Dollar (USD). With many factors affecting both technical and fundamental outlook, understanding the Gold price forecast is essential for anyone buying or selling in Saudi Arabia.

Weekly Gold Price Forecast – Key Market Trends

This week, gold showed strong momentum. Monday opened at $3,642.30 and quickly tested $3,685.48, closing at $3,677.83 with a 0.98% rise. Tuesday carried the rally higher, touching $3,703.04, but closed slightly softer at $3,688.59. By Wednesday, the trend reversed sharply, closing at $3,658.71 after testing lows of $3,646.02. Thursday extended weakness with a $3,644.02 close, before Friday’s bounce sent gold back toward $3,684.59. The Fear and Greed Index ranged between 90–95, suggesting markets stayed in an extreme greed zone.

The week displayed clear volatility, typical of a Gold market correction after hitting all-time highs. Traders in Saudi Arabia saw both risks and opportunities as the precious metal outlook remained bullish but corrective.

Technical Analysis of Gold Price

From a technical point of view, gold corrected after peaking above $3,700. The Daily RSI indicator pulled back but remained above overbought territory, showing that momentum still favors buyers. However, the MACD indicator showed a possible MACD bearish cross, which suggests further downside pressure may occur.

For Saudi investors, the chart highlights key support levels at Support at $3,615 – $3,630 and deeper around $3,580 and $3,500. On the upside, gold faces Resistance at $3,675 – $3,710, while a breakout can push toward Price level $3,740 (161.8% extension). This technical analysis of gold suggests that while a pullback may continue, the larger XAU/USD forecast remains positive.

Gold Market Sentiment – Fear and Greed Index

The Fear and Greed Index remained very high during the week, with readings between 90 and 95. Such numbers mean traders were more driven by greed than fear, pushing prices closer to record highs. In Saudi Arabia, this sentiment was felt strongly in gold souks and bullion trading, where buyers rushed to secure deals before possible spikes.

Fundamental Drivers Behind the Forecast

Global fundamentals also shaped the market. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey and stronger-than-expected US jobless claims data supported the US Dollar (USD) recovery, but the strength was short-lived. Markets remain convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will move toward monetary easing with strong Fed rate cut expectations.

The Futures market shows traders nearly fully pricing a rate cut in the upcoming October Fed meeting, with high chances of more cuts at the December monetary policy meeting. Weak US employment data added pressure, raising hopes for further stimulus. Yet, the Jerome Powell outlook may not fully confirm this aggressive path, leaving traders in Saudi Arabia cautious.

Next Week’s Gold Price Forecast – Technical & Fundamental Outlook

Looking ahead, the technical analysis of gold shows a strong buy signal for the next week, with markets expected to test higher resistance levels if the US Dollar weakens again. Traders should keep a close watch on Futures market pricing and the speeches of Fed members scheduled in the calendar.

On the fundamental side, upcoming data on PMI, CPI, and oil markets may play a vital role. For Saudi investors, gold is likely to remain volatile but attractive, with potential to move between Support at $3,615 – $3,630 and Resistance at $3,675 – $3,710, before possibly challenging the Price level $3,740 (161.8% extension) if momentum continues.

Next Week’s Major Global Economic Events

The upcoming week is filled with major global economic events that could create big movements in the Gold (XAU) market.

Early sessions will see RBA Governor Bullock and China’s Loan Prime Rate announcements, which may set the tone for Asian market sentiment. Later, attention will shift to US Dollar (USD) news, including FOMC speeches, US jobless claims, Current Account data, and GDP reports.

The most important event will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s outlook at the end of the week, as traders look for clues on rate hike/cut speculation, monetary easing, and US employment data. If the tone is dovish, gold may push towards upside targets, but a hawkish stance could trigger a gold market correction.

Conclusion

The Gold price analysis of the week showed sharp moves but kept the bullish tone alive. The mix of technical analysis of gold, global fundamentals, and strong buying interest in Saudi Arabia makes the next week promising. While the market may correct further, the XAU/USD forecast points to higher levels as long as the Federal Reserve (Fed) keeps the door open for cuts.

Gold remains both a cultural treasure and a strategic asset in Saudi Arabia. Investors should stay updated, watch the Jerome Powell outlook, and plan carefully before making their next move in this fascinating precious metal outlook.